VTOL (Bristow Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Bristow Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bristow Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bristow Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bristow Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Bristow Group Inc (NYSE:VTOL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ERG1:Germany

Address

3151 Briarpark Drive, 7th Floor, Suite 700, Houston, TX, USA, 77042

Website

https://www.bristowgroup.com

Bristow Group Inc is the provider of vertical flight solutions. It provides aviation services to a broad base of integrated, national, and independent energy companies. The company provides commercial search and rescue (SAR) services in multiple countries and public sector SAR services in the United Kingdom on behalf of the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA). Additionally, it offers fixed-wing transportation and other aviation-related solutions. Its energy customers charter its helicopters to transport personnel to, from, and between onshore bases and offshore production platforms, drilling rigs, and other installations. It has customers in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Spain, Suriname, Trinidad, the U.K. and the United States.

Executives

Brian D. Truelove	director	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Solus Alternative Asset Management Lp	10 percent owner	25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Jennifer Dawn Whalen	officer: SVP, CFO	13103 SHOALWATER LANE, PEARLAND TX 77584
David F. Stepanek	officer: Executive VP and COO	2001 SE EVANGELINE THRUWAY, LAFAYETTE LA 70508
Wesley E. Kern	director	5004 GREGORY PLACE, WEST LAKE HILLS TX 78746
Maryanne Miller	director	3151 BRIARPARK DRIVE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042
Lorin L. Brass	director	46652 278TH ST., LENNOX SD 57039
Stuart Stavley	officer: COO, Offshore Energy Services	CITYCENTRE TWO, 818 TOWN & COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77024
Elizabeth Matthews	officer: See remarks.	3151 BRIARPARK DRIVE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042
Christopher Scott Bradshaw	director, officer: President and CEO	CITYCENTRE TWO, 818 TOWN & COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 33316
George Mark Mickelson	director	101 N. MAIN AVENUE, STE. 321, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Christopher Pucillo	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SOLUS ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Solus Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O SOLUS ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Richard E Tatum	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	11700 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 175, HOUSTON TX 77079
Robert Manzo	director	PARK 80 W PLZ 2, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663