VTS (Vitesse Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Vitesse Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vitesse Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vitesse Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Vitesse Energy Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Vitesse Energy Inc (NYSE:VTS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9200 East Mineral Avenue, Suite 200, Centennial, CO, USA, 80112

Website

https://www.vitesse-vts.com

Vitesse Energy Inc is an independent energy company focused on returning capital to stockholders through owning interests as a non-operator in oil and natural gas wells. It is engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of non-operated oil and natural gas properties in the United States that are generally operated by oil companies and are in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana. The company also have properties in the Central Rockies, including the Denver-Julesburg Basin and the Powder River Basin.

Executives

Robert W Gerrity	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	9200 E. MINERAL AVE., SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
James P Henderson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1625 BROADWAY, SUITE 250, DENVER CO 80202
Leary Dan O	director	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
Joseph S Steinberg	director	C/O LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP, 315 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10010
Brian Cree	officer: President	9200 E. MINERAL AVE., SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Christopher I Humber	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	9200 E. MINERAL AVE, SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Brian P Friedman	director
Randy I Stein	director	1670 BROADWAY SUITE 2800, DENVER CO 80202
Linda Adamany	director	505 FRONT AVE., P.O. BOX "I", COEUR D'ALENE ID 83816
Cathleen M Osborn	director	9200 E. MINERAL AVE, SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David R Macosko	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9200 E. MINERAL AVE, SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Michael Sabol	officer: VP - SEC & Financial Reporting	9200 E. MINERAL AVE, SUITE 200, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Mike Morella	officer: VP - Chief Accounting Officer	9200 E. MINERAL AVE., SUITE 200, CENTENNIAI CO 80112
Vitesse Energy Finance Llc	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022