What is Vintage Wine Estates Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Vintage Wine Estates Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Vintage Wine Estates (Vintage Wine Estates) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
937 Tahoe Boulevard, Suite 210, Incline Village, NV, USA, 89451
Vintage Wine Estates Inc is a family of wineries and wines whose singular focus is producing the finest quality wines and incredible customer experiences with wineries throughout Napa, Sonoma, California's Central Coast, Oregon, and Washington State.
Executives
| Patrick A Roney |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Timothy D Proctor |
director |
301 SOUTH COLLEGE STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28288-0630 |
| Jonathan Sebastiani |
director, other: Member of 10% owner group |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Seth Kaufman |
officer: President and CEO |
C/O VINTAGE WINE ESTATES, INC., 937 TAHOE BLVD, SUITE 210, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Bespoke Sponsor Capital Lp |
10 percent owner |
115 PARK STREET, 3RD FLOOR, LONDON X0 W1K 7AP |
| Paul S Walsh |
director |
8 HENRIETTA PLACE, LONDON X0 94111 |
| Zach Long |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
C/O VINTAGE WINE ESTATES, INC., 937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Jon Moramarco |
director |
C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564 |
| Kristina L Johnston |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
937 TAHOE BLVD., SUITE 210, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Katherine Devillers |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Terry Wheatley |
officer: President |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Harms Mark W.b. |
director |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
| Berner Robert L Iii |
director |
C/O CHARTERHOUSE GROUP INTERNATIONAL INC, 535 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Lisa M. Schnorr |
director |
C/O GRAHAM CORPORATION, 20 FLORENCE AVENUE, BATAVIA NY 14020 |
| Russell G Joy |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
937 TAHOE BOULEVARD, SUITE 10, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451 |
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