WEN (The Wendy's Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Wendy's Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Wendy's Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Wendy's Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » The Wendy's Co (NAS:WEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TQK:Germany

Address

One Dave Thomas Boulevard, Dublin, OH, USA, 43017

Website

https://www.wendys.com

The Wendy's Company is the second-largest burger quick-service restaurant, or QSR, chain in the United States by systemwide sales, with $12.3 billion in 2023, narrowly edging Burger King ($11.5 billion) and clocking in well behind wide-moat McDonald's ($53.1 billion). After divestitures of Tim Hortons (2006) and Arby's (2011), the firm manages just the burger banner, generating sales across a footprint that spanned almost 7,157 total stores in 30 countries as of year-end 2023. Wendy's generates revenue from the sale of hamburgers, chicken sandwiches, salads, and fries throughout its company-owned footprint, through franchise royalty and marketing fund payments remitted by its franchisees, which account for 94% of stores, and through franchise flipping and advisory fees.

Executives

Mich J Mathews-spradlin	director	ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Liliana Esposito	officer: Chief Communications Officer	ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Trian Fund Management, L.p.	other: Schedule 13D Filer	280 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kristin A Dolan	director	C/O MSG TWO PENN PLAZA, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10121
Juan Carlos Loredo	officer: Global Chief Marketing Officer	C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Kenneth W Gilbert	director	C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Joseph A Levato	director	C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Michelle Caruso-cabrera	director	C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Nelson Peltz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	223 SUNSET AVENUE, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Edward P Garden	officer: Executive Vice President	223 SUNSET AVENUE, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Peter W May	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and COO	223 SUNSET AVENUE, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Matthew H. Peltz	director	280 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Trian Partners Master Fund, L.p.	other: Schedule 13D Filer	280 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deepak Ajmani	officer: Chief Operations Officer - U.S	C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Suzanne M. Thuerk	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE DAVE THOMAS BLVD., C/O THE WENDY'S COMPANY, DUBLIN OH 43017