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Weatherford International (Weatherford International) Predictability Rank


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What is Weatherford International Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Weatherford International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Weatherford International Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Weatherford International's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Weatherford International (Weatherford International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2000 St. James Place, Houston, TX, USA, 77056
Weatherford International provides diversified oilfield services worldwide for an array of oilfield types. The firm is a global market leader in artificial lift and tubular running services. Other key product lines include cementing products, directional drilling, and wireline evaluation.
Executives
Joseph H Mongrain officer: EVP and CHRO 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Girish Saligram director, officer: President and CEO 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Desmond J Mills officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Scott C Weatherholt officer: EVP, GC & CCO 321 SOUTH BOSTON AVE., SUITE 1000, TULSA OK 74103
Arunava Mitra officer: EVP and CFO 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Charles Davison officer: EVP - Operational Excellence 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
H. Keith Jennings officer: EVP and CFO 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Benjamin Duster director 200 E. 84ST, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10028
Mark D Swift officer: President - Western Hemisphere 2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Christian A Garcia officer: Chief Financial Officer 3000 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., BLDG. J-4, HOUSTON TX 77032
John F Glick director TETRA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Charles M Sledge director 1611 SCENIC MOUNTAIN COURT, KINGWOOD TX 77345
Neal P Goldman director 10700 PARKRIDGE BLVD., RESTON VA 20191
Bates Thomas R Jr director TETRA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Gordon T Hall director 3300 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032-3411