What is Workhorse Group Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Workhorse Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Workhorse Group Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3600 Park 42 Drive, Suite 160E, Sharonville, OH, USA, 45241
Workhorse Group Inc is a technology company with a vision to pioneer the transition to zero-emission commercial vehicles. Its focus is to provide sustainable and cost-effective solutions to the commercial transportation sector. It designs and manufactures all-electric delivery trucks and drone systems, including the technology that optimizes the way these vehicles operate. It's focused on a core competency of bringing electric delivery vehicle platforms to serve the last-mile delivery market. Its products are marketed under the Workhorse brand.
Executives
| Richard F Dauch |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O SPARTAN MOTORS INC, 1541 REYNOLDS ROAD, CHARLOTTE MI 48813 |
| Ryan Wesley Gaul |
officer: President, Commercial Vehicles |
21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167 |
| James Peters |
officer: VP, Supply Chain Management |
100 COMMERCE STREET, LOVELAND OH 45140 |
| Stanley Raymond March |
officer: VP, Business Development |
100 COMMERCE DRIVE, LOVELAND OH 45140 |
| Robert M Ginnan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Joshua Joseph Anderson |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
100 COMMERCE DRIVE, LOVELAND OH 45140 |
| James D. Harrington |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
500 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Jean Botti |
director |
3600 PARK 42 DRIVE, SUITE 160E, SHARONVILLE OH 45241 |
| Brandon Torres Declet |
director |
C/O MEASURE GLOBAL INC., 1701 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE NW, STE 05-103, WASHINGTON DC 20036 |
| Michael Laurence Clark |
director |
828 PRESIDENT STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11215 |
| Jacqueline A Dedo |
director |
3939 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, MAUMEE OH 43537 |
| Raymond Joseph Chess |
director |
1084 ANDANTE CT, OXFORD MI 48370 |
| Harry Demott |
director |
C/O WORKHORSE GROUP INC.,, 100 COMMERCE DRIVE, LOVELAND OH 45140 |
| Austin Scott Miller |
director |
100 COMMERCE STREET, LOVELAND OH 45140 |
| Pamela S. Mader |
director |
2522 N 600 E, CRAIGVILLE IN 46731 |
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