Westlake Chemical Partners LP (Westlake Chemical Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Westlake Chemical Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Westlake Chemical Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Westlake Chemical Partners LP (Westlake Chemical Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Westlake Chemical Partners LP (NYSE:WLKP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2801 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 600, Houston, TX, USA, 77056

Website

https://www.wlkpartners.com

Westlake Chemical Partners LP is a part of the chemical industry in the United States. Its operations are conducted through OpCo, it acquires and develop ethyelene production facilities, which convert ethane into ethylene. OpCo sells ethylene and its co-products such as propylene, crude butadiene, pyrolysis gasoline, and hydrogen to Westlake and other customers located in the United States. Its assets include three ethylene production facilities in Calvert City, Kentucky, and Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Executives

Andrew Kenner	officer: SVP, Olefin Material & Corp Pr	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Randy Woelfel	director	3411-3433 W. EL SEGUNDO BLVD., HAWTHORNE CA 90250
G Stephen Finley	director	9320 LAKESIDE BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Lisa A. Friel	director	2611 PLUM HOLLOW, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
James Chao	director, 10 percent owner	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Thomas J. Janssens	officer: VP, Olefins Feedstock & Energy	2801 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Johnathan Stevan Zoeller	officer: VP and CAO	2801 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Albert Chao	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
L. Benjamin Ederington	director, officer: VP, General Counsel	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Mark Steven Bender	director, officer: Sr VP, CFO	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Lawrence E. Teel	officer: SVP, Olefins	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Ttwfgp Llc	10 percent owner	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
David Lumpkins	director	600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 3250, HOUSTON TX 77002
Angela A Minas	director	3262 WESTHEIMER ROAD #627, HOUSTON TX 77098
Blackstone Securities Partners L.p.	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154-0191