What is Essential Utilities Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Essential Utilities Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Essential Utilities (Essential Utilities) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
762 West Lancaster Avenue, Bryn Mawr, PA, USA, 19010-3489
Essential Utilities is a Pennsylvania-based holding company for U.S. water, wastewater, and natural gas distribution utilities. The company's water business serves 3 million people in eight states. Nearly three fourths of its water earnings come from Pennsylvania, primarily suburban Philadelphia. Its Peoples subsidiary serves more than 700,000 gas distribution customers in Pennsylvania and Kentucky. Essential exited its noncore competitive water and energy services businesses.
Executives
| Roderick K West |
director |
1600 PERDIDO STREET, BLDG 505, NEW ORLEANS LA 70112 |
| Arnold Colleen |
officer: President |
762 W. LANCASTER AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Chris Franklin |
officer: Aqua America Southern Oper |
762 W.LANCASTER AVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Michael Huwar |
officer: President |
762 W. LANCASTER AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Ellen T Ruff |
director |
762, W LANCASTER AVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Wilbert Bryan Lewis |
director |
762 W. LANCASTER AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Robert A Rubin |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
762 W LANCASTER AVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Daniel Schuller |
officer: Executive Vice President |
40 SACHEM ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| David Alan Ciesinski |
director |
H. J. HEINZ COMPANY, P.O. BOX 57, PITTSBURGH PA 15230 |
| Edwina Kelly |
director |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 15FL, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Richard Scott Fox |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
14812 BALLANTYNE COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Matthew Rhodes |
officer: EVP, Strategy & Corp Dev |
762 LANCASTER AVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Wendy Franks |
director |
ONE QUEEN STREET EAST, SUITE 2500, TORONTO A6 M5C 2W5 |
| Hilferty Daniel J Iii |
director |
C/O FS INVESTMENT CORPORATION III, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104 |
| Christopher Paul Luning |
officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec |
762 W. LANCASTER AVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
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