XBiotech (XBiotech) Predictability Rank

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What is XBiotech Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XBiotech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

XBiotech Predictability Rank Related Terms

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XBiotech (XBiotech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » XBiotech Inc (NAS:XBIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4XB:Germany 4XB:Germany

Address

5217 Winnebago Lane, Austin, TX, USA, 78744

Website

http://www.xbiotech.com

XBiotech Inc is a United States based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in discovering and developing True Human (antibody technology) monoclonal antibodies for treating a variety of diseases. The company focuses on developing Anti-IL-1 a therapeutic antibody as a treatment for cancer. Geographically, all of its operations are in the United States.

Executives

Angela Hu	officer: Principle Financial Officer	5217 WINNEBAGO LN, AUSTIN TX 78744
John Simard	director, 10 percent owner	8201 E RIVERSIDE DRIVE, BLDG 4, STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Bay Street Financial S.a.	10 percent owner	MEIERHOFSTRASSE 5, LIECHTENSTEIN N2 9490 VADUZ
W Thorpe Mckenzie	director, 10 percent owner	735 BROAD ST, STE 1105, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Sushma Shivaswamy	officer: VP of R&D	8201 E RIVERSIDE DRIVE, BLDG 4, STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Queena Han	officer: VP of Fin & HR, Secretary	8201 E RIVERSIDE DRIVE, BLDG 4 STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Thomas Gut	10 percent owner	CO LINDENBERG FAMILY OFFICE LTD, LATERNENGASSE 5, ZURICH V8 8001
Peter Libby	director	109 LARCH ROAD, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Fondation Rennes	10 percent owner	RATIKONSTRASSE 13, VADUZ, PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN N2 FL-9490
Donald H. Macadam	director	56 KELLY DRIVE, PORT DOVER A6 N0A 1N5
Jan-paul Waldin	director	77 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 3000, TORONTO A6 M5K 1G8
Benjamin Guzman	officer: Sr.VP Corp. Strategy & Finance	8201 E RIVERSIDE DR BLDG. 4 STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Trey Benson	officer: VP of Commercial Development	8201 E. RIVERSIDE DR., BUILDING 4, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Kalidip Choudhury	officer: VP of Business Development	8201 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, BUILDING 4, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78744
Dawn Mccollough	officer: VP Clinical Operations	115 SANDRA MURAIDA WAY, #838, AUSTIN TX 78703