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Hiap Teck Venture Bhd (XKLS:5072) Predictability Rank


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What is Hiap Teck Venture Bhd Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hiap Teck Venture Bhd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hiap Teck Venture Bhd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hiap Teck Venture Bhd (XKLS:5072) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Hiap Teck Venture Bhd (XKLS:5072) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKLS:5125 XKLS:6556 XKLS:5665 XKLS:5094 XKLS:0266 XKLS:4235 XKLS:5098 XKLS:5178 XKLS:5797 XKLS:5232 NUE XKRX:005490 BOM:500228 TSE:5401 SHSE:600019 XAMS:MT NSE:TATASTEEL STLD RS MIC:CHMF
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Lot 6096, Jalan Haji Abdul Manan, Batu 5 1/2, Off Jalan Meru, Klang, SGR, MYS, 41050
Website
https://www.htgrp.com.my
Hiap Teck Venture Bhd is a Malaysia-based company. It has five segments. The Trading segment is involved in importing, exporting, general dealing, and leasing of steel products, hardware, and building materials; the Manufacturing segment is involved in manufacturing, selling, and renting pipes, hollow sections, scaffolding equipment, and other steel products; the Property and Investment segment is engaged in renting out property and investment holding; the Transportation segment includes a provision of transportation of goods by lorries; and the Mining and exploration segment consists of exploring, contracting and other activities related to the mining, processing, and sale of iron ore. It generates a vast majority of the revenues from the Trading segment within Malaysia.

Hiap Teck Venture Bhd (XKLS:5072) Headlines

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