Xos (XOS) Predictability Rank

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What is Xos Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Xos Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xos (XOS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Xos Inc (NAS:XOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3550 Tyburn Street, Unit 100, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90065

Website

https://www.xostrucks.com

Xos Inc is an electric mobility company. It designs and develops fully electric battery mobility systems specifically for commercial fleets. The company's primary focus is on medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles that travel on last mile routes. The company leverages its proprietary technologies to provide commercial fleets zero emission vehicles that are easier to maintain and more cost-efficient on a total cost of ownership basis than internal combustion engine and commercial EV counterparts.

Executives

Jose Castaneda	officer: VP, Business Development	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Liana Pogosyan	officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	C/O XOS, INC., 3550 TYBURN STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
George N Mattson	director	C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320
Robert Ferber	officer: Chief Technology Officer	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Giordano Sordoni	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Dakota Semler	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Edward J Rapp	director	100 NE ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Stuart N. Bernstein	director	C/O XOS, INC., 3550 TYBURN STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Christen T Romero	officer: General Counsel	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Anousheh Ansari	director	10560 DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. ST. N., ST. PETERSBURG, FL FL 33716
Alice K Jackson	director	1800 LARIMER STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Burt Jordan	director	4387 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, ORCHARD LAKE MI 48323
Kingsley Afemikhe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3550 TYBURN STREET, UNIT 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90065
Aljomaih Automotive Co.	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 224, KING KHALID STREET, ALJOMAIH BUILDING, 1ST FLOOR, DAMMAM T0 31411
Emerald Green Trust	10 percent owner	3211 MULHOLLAND HIGHWAY, MALIBU CA 90265