Novaccess Global (Novaccess Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Novaccess Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Novaccess Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Novaccess Global Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Novaccess Global (Novaccess Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Novaccess Global Inc (OTCPK:XSNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8485 E,Washington Street, No. 127, Chagrin Falls, OH, USA, 44023

Website

https://www.novaccessglobal.com

Novaccess Global Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that is developing novel immunotherapies to treat brain tumor patients in the United States. The company's team of experts is working to strengthen the capability of the human body's defense against cancer.

Executives

Jason Michael Anderson	director	8584 E. WASHINGTON STREET, NO. 127, CHAGRIN FALLS OH 44023
John Cassarini	director	880 WINTER STREET, BUILDING 4, WALTHAM MA 02451
Neil J Laird	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Larry Michael Yukich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8834 MAYFIELD ROAD, SUITE C, CHESTERLAND OH 44026
Dwain Morris-irvin	officer: Chief Executive Officer	8834 MAYFIELD ROAD, SUITE C, CHESTERLAND OH 44026
Innovest Global, Inc.	10 percent owner	8834 MAYFIELD ROAD, CHESTERLAND OH 44026
Daniel G. Martin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8834 MAYFIELD RD, CHESTERLAND OH 44026
Michael A Russak	director
Osmund Mark Fundingsland	director	1237 LAS PALMAS DR, SANTA BARBARA CA 93110
Thomas A Anderson	director	2116 PASEO PRIMERO, SANTA FE NM 87501
Jeff J Huitt	officer: CFO	10651 WEST 34TH PLACE, WHEAT RIDGE CO 80033
Joseph Grimes	officer: COO	6 CLEOME, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Tom M Djokovich	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	23332 VISTA CARILLO, LAGUNA NIGUEL CA 92677
Brian Altounian	director, officer: Secretary	626 N. DOHENY DRIVE, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Thomas Djokovich	director, officer: President	1601 CLOVERFIELD BLVD, 2ND FL. S. TOWER, SANTA MONICA CA 90404