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Instone Real Estate Group SE (XTER:INS) Predictability Rank


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What is Instone Real Estate Group SE Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Instone Real Estate Group SE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Instone Real Estate Group SE Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Instone Real Estate Group SE's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Instone Real Estate Group SE Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Instone Real Estate Group SE (XTER:INS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HAM:KBU DFM:EMAAR HKSE:00016 PHS:HVN HKSE:01109 BOM:532868 TSE:1925 HKSE:00688 ADX:ALDAR BOM:543287 DFM:EMAARDEV HKSE:01113 SHSE:600048 SGX:H78 ISX:PANI SZSE:001979 SZSE:000002 HKSE:00083 XAMS:CTPNV HKSE:00960
Traded in Other Exchanges
INSd:UK 0ZQ7:UK
Address
Grugaplatz 2-4, Essen, NW, DEU, 45131
Website
https://www.instone.de
Instone Real Estate Group SE is a real estate development company. The company is engaged in the development of modern, urban, multi-family homes and the redevelopment of listed buildings for residential use. The company constructs apartment buildings and residential quarters, refurbishment of monument-protected properties, and new buildings of real estate properties and other related activities. The company operates only in one business segment and one geographical segment and generates revenue and holds majority assets in Germany.
Executives
David Dreyfus Board of Directors
Dr. Jochen Scharpe Supervisory Board
Dietmar P. Binkowska Supervisory Board
Dr. Foruhar Madjlessi Board of Directors
Stefan Brendgen Supervisory Board

Instone Real Estate Group SE Headlines

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