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Yadkin Financial (Yadkin Financial) Predictability Rank


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What is Yadkin Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Yadkin Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Yadkin Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Yadkin Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Yadkin Financial (Yadkin Financial) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Yadkin Financial Corp was incorporated under the laws of North Carolina on March 2, 2006. It is a bank holding company. It conducts its business operations through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yadkin Bank. Yadkin Bank's primary business is providing banking, mortgage, investment and insurance services to businesses and consumers across the Carolinas. The Company has a single operating segment, which is providing general commercial banking and financial services to individuals and businesses located in North Carolina and South Carolina, and to customers in various states through its SBA lending program. The Company operates branches in North Carolina and South Carolina. From an operational standpoint, management has organized its branches into six regions. The Company provides Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Loans, Commercial Real Estate Loans, Construction Loans, Consumer Loans, Home Equity Lines of Credit and Residential Real Estate Loans, Residential Mortgage Loans and Government-Guaranteed Loans. The Company provides deposit services to businesses and individuals, including non-interest bearing checking accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, IRAs and CDs. The Company competes in its market areas with regional and national banking organizations, other federally and state-chartered financial institutions such as savings and loan institutions and credit unions, consumer finance companies, mortgage companies and other lenders engaged in the business of extending credit. As a bank holding company, the Company is subject to regulation under the Bank Holding Company Act and to the supervision, examination and reporting requirements of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Reserve.
Executives
Scott Custer director, officer: President and CEO 4711 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 2B, RALEIGH NC 27609
Terry Earley officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O CRESCENT FINANCIAL BANCSHARES, INC., 1005 HIGH HOUSE ROAD, CARY NC 27513
Joseph Hampton Towell director YADKIN VALLEY FINANCIAL CORPORATION, P. O. DRAWER 7109, STATESVILLE NC 28687
J Adam Abram director C/O PIEDMONT COMMUNITY BANK HOLDINGS INC, 4711 SIX FORKS ROAD STE 2B, RALEIGH NC 27609
Stone Point Capital Llc other: Director by Deputization (1) 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830

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