Zillow Group (Zillow Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Zillow Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zillow Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zillow Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zillow Group (Zillow Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Zillow Group Inc (NAS:Z) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZG:USA Z:Mexico 0ZG2:Germany 0ZG:Germany 0ZG2:Germany 0ZG:Germany Z2LL34:Brazil

Address

1301 Second Avenue, Floor 31, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.zillowgroup.com

Zillow Group Inc is an Internet-based real estate company that offers its customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting, or financing with transparency and ease The group works with real estate agents, brokers, builders, property managers, and landlords to pair technology with top-notch service. The group operates in three segments namely the Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) segment, the Mortgages segment, and the Homes segment.

Executives

Jennifer Rock	officer: Interim CFO	1301 SECOND AVENUE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98070
Susan Daimler	officer: President of Zillow	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jeremy Hofmann	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Dan Spaulding	officer: Chief People Officer	1301 SECOND AVE, FL 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Bradley D. Owens	officer: General Counsel	1301 SECOND AVE, FL 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Erik C Blachford	director	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Jeremy Wacksman	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC, 1301 SECOND AVENUE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Errol G Samuelson	officer: Chief Industry Dev. Officer	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
David A. Beitel	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Allen Parker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Jay C Hoag	director	250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Arik Prawer	officer: Pres. Homes Div./Co-Head IO	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98070
Stanley B Humphries	officer: Chief Analytics Officer	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Aimee Johnson	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1301 2ND AVE FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Lloyd D Frink	director, officer: Vice Chairman & President	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101