Zuora (ZUO) Predictability Rank

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What is Zuora Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zuora Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zuora Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Zuora Inc (NYSE:ZUO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

GB STER TUYA PGY VRNT ATEN YEXT CLBT BASE AVPT MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

0XL5:UK 2ZU:Germany

Address

101 Redwood Shores Parkway, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.zuora.com

Zuora Inc provides cloud-based software on a subscription basis that enables companies in various industries to launch, manage, and transform into a subscription business. The firm offers a Zuora Central platform that acts as an intelligent subscription management hub that automates the subscription order-to-cash process, including quoting, billing, collections, analytics, and revenue recognition. Its products include Zuora Billing, Zuora Revenue, Zuora Payments, Zephr, Zuora Platform, and other software that support and expand upon the core offerings. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Peter Hirsch	officer: Chief Product & Tech Officer	C/O ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Matthew R Dobson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Tien Tzuo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Robert J. Traube	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Andrew M. Cohen	officer: CLO and Corp. Secretary	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Todd Mcelhatton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Amy Guggenheim Shenkan	director	C/O RITCHIE BROS. AUCTIONEERS INC., 9500 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 0C6
Kenneth A Goldman	director	C/O YAHOO! INC., 701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Sri Srinivasan	officer: Chief Product & Tech Officer	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Laura A. Clayton	director	C/O ZUORA, INC., 101 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Silver Lake Alpine Associates Ii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sla Zurich Gp, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slaa Ii (gp), L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sla Zurich Aggregator, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sla Zurich Holdings, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025