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Apple (NAS:AAPL) Predictability Rank


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5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apple Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Apple Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Apple (NAS:AAPL) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Apple Inc (NAS:AAPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NAS:SONO NYSE:VZIO NAS:GPRO NAS:VOXX NAS:HEAR NAS:VUZI NAS:UEIC NYSE:ZEPP NAS:KOSS OTCPK:HLOC XKRX:005930 TSE:6758 HKSE:01810 TSE:6752 XKRX:066570 XKRX:003550 SZSE:002241 SHSE:603296 SZSE:300866 TSE:6753
Traded in Other Exchanges
AAPL:Peru AAPL:Mexico AAPL:Italy APCd:UK 0R2V:UK APC8:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany AAPL:Chile AAPL:Canada AAPL34:Brazil AAPL:Austria AAPL:Argentina
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Website
https://www.apple.com
Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (Mac), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and AirPods, among others. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products include internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, semiconductors, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers.
Executives
Alex Gorsky director JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Monica C Lozano director
Deirdre O'brien officer: Senior Vice President ONE APPLE PARK WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Robert A Iger director C/O WALT DISNEY CO, 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Andrea Jung director C/O APPLE INC, ONE APPLE PARK WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Susan Wagner director C/O BLACKROCK, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
James A Bell director C/O THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY, 2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Albert Jr Gore director C/O APPLE INC, 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Ronald D Sugar director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1650, LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Katherine L. Adams officer: SVP, General Counsel APPLE INC., 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Luca Maestri officer: Senior Vice President, CFO 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Angela J Ahrendts officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Jeffrey E Williams officer: COO ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Philip W Schiller officer: Senior Vice President C/O APPLE INC, ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Eduardo H Cue officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014