Accel Entertainment (Accel Entertainment) Predictability Rank

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What is Accel Entertainment Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Accel Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Accel Entertainment (Accel Entertainment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Accel Entertainment Inc (NYSE:ACEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

140 Tower Drive, Burr Ridge, Chicago, IL, USA, 60527

Website

https://www.accelentertainment.com

Accel Entertainment Inc is a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is engaged in the installation, maintenance, and operation of video gaming terminals. The company offers products to restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. It operates slot machines and amusement equipment. The company generates a majority of its revenue from net gaming. Net gaming revenue represents net cash received from gaming activities, which is the difference between gaming wins and losses. Net gaming revenue includes the amounts earned by location partners and is recognized at the time of gaming play.

Executives

David W. Ruttenberg	director	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Karl Mr. Peterson	director, officer: President & CEO	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Derek Harmer	officer: Secretary	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Andrew H. Rubenstein	director, officer: CEO, President	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Gordon Rubenstein	director	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Christen Kozlik	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	140 TOWER DR., BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Mathew Scot Ellis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACCEL ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 140 TOWER DR., BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Brian M. Carroll	officer: Chief Financial Officer	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Dee M Robinson	director	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Michael Joseph Marino	officer: Chief Commerical Officer	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Ryan Hammer	officer: President, Gaming Operations	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Clairvest Group Inc	10 percent owner	22 ST. CLAIRE AVE., SUITE 1700 M4T 253, TORONTO ONTARIO
Brian Sampias	officer: Controller	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Eden Godsoe	director	140 TOWER DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Kenneth Rotman	director	C/O CLAIRVEST GROUP INC, 22 ST. CLAIR AVENUE EAST, SUITE 1700, TORONTO A6 M4T 2S3