Armada Hoffler Properties (Armada Hoffler Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Armada Hoffler Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Armada Hoffler Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Armada Hoffler Properties (Armada Hoffler Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Armada Hoffler Properties Inc (NYSE:AHH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHHpA.PFD:USA

Address

222 Central Park Avenue, Suite 2100, Virginia Beach, VA, USA, 23462

Website

https://www.armadahoffler.com

Armada Hoffler Properties Inc is a real estate company. It engages in developing, building, owning and managing the high-quality, institutional-grade office, retail, and multifamily properties in various markets throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. The company's operating segment includes office real estate, retail real estate, multifamily residential real estate, and general contracting and real estate services. It generates maximum revenue from the general contracting and real estate services segment.

Executives

A Russell Kirk	director	3720 VIRGINIA BEACH BLVD, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23452
Eric E. Apperson	officer: Vice President	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Dennis H. Gartman	director	C/O ARMADA HOFFLER PROPERTIES, INC., 222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Matthew Barnes-smith	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	C/O ARMADA HOFFLER PROPERTIES, INC., 222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Michael P O'hara	officer: Treasurer, CFO	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
John W. Snow	director	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 S. MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Daniel A Hoffler	director	4171 ESSEN LANE, BATON ROUGE LA 70809
Louis S Haddad	director, officer: President, CEO	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
James C. Cherry	director	C/O PARK STERLING BANK, 1043 EAST MOREHEAD STREET, SUITE 201, CHARLOTTE NC 28204
Shawn J Tibbetts	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ARMADA HOFFLER PROPERTIES, INC., 222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Dorothy Mcauliffe	director	C/O ARMADA HOFFLER PROPERTIES, INC., 222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Eva S Hardy	director	ARMADA HOFFLER PROPERTIES, 222 CENTRAL PARK AVE, STE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
George F Allen	director	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Shelly R. Hampton	officer: Vice President	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Eric L Smith	officer: Chief Investment Officer	222 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2100, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462