Asure Software (Asure Software) Predictability Rank

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What is Asure Software Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Asure Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Asure Software (Asure Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Asure Software Inc (NAS:ASUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

405 Colorado Street, Suite 1800, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.asuresoftware.com

Asure Software Inc is a provider of cloud-based Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions delivered as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). It facilitates small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) to develop their Human Capital to get to the next level, stay compliant, and allocate their time, money and technology toward growth. The company's HCM suite, named AsureHCM, includes cloud-based Payroll and Tax, HR, a Time and Attendance software. Its HR services range from HR projects to outsourcing payroll to HR consulting services. The firm sells its HCM products in the United States.

Executives

Patrick Goepel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7050 WINNETKA AVE N, SUITE 100, BROOKLYN PARK MN 55428
Eyal Goldstein	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	18154 SWEET ELM DRIVE, ENCINO CA 91316
Bradford Scovill Oberwager	director	340 S. LEMON AVE. #5445, WALNUT CA 91789
Bjorn Reynolds	director	108 WILD BASIN RD. S., SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78746
Ben F Allen	director	C/O ASURE SOFTWARE, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY. #350, AUSTIN TX 78746
Grace G. Lee	director	C/O CUBIC CORPORATION, 9333 BALBOA AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
William Carl Drew	director	3700 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE 350, AUSTIN TX 78746
John F Pence	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ASURE SOFTWARE, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY. #350, AUSTIN TX 78746
James Powers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2128 W. BRAKER LANE, BK12, AUSTIN TX 78758
Red Oak Partners, Llc	director	95 S. FEDERAL HWY, SUITE 201, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Daniel M Gill	director	1560 SHERMAN AVENUE, SUITE 1200, EVANSTON IL 60201
Kelyn Brannon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	300 E. RIVERSIDE DRIVE, APT. 527, AUSTIN TX 78704
Lathrop Charles W Jr	director	3700 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, #350, AUSTIN TX 78746
John Randall Waterfield	director	140 BROADWAY, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
David Sandberg	director	40 SE 5TH STREET, SUITE 502, BOCA RATON FL 33432