Avalara (NYSE:AVLR) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avalara Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avalara (NYSE:AVLR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Avalara Inc (NYSE:AVLR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

255 South King Street, Suite 1800, Seattle, WA, USA, 98104

Website

https://www.avalara.com

Avalara Inc provides compliance solutions. It provides software solutions that help businesses of all types and sizes comply with tax requirements for transactions worldwide. The company offers a broad and growing suite of compliance solutions for transaction taxes, such as sales and use tax, VAT, fuel excise tax, beverage alcohol, cross-border taxes, lodging tax, and communications tax. These solutions enable customers to automate the process of determining taxability, identifying applicable tax rates, determining and collecting taxes, preparing and filing returns, remitting taxes, maintaining tax records, and managing compliance documents. It generates revenue in the form of subscriptions and professional services.

Executives

Marcela Martin	director	C/O SQUARESPACE, INC., 225 VARICK STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Bruce T Crawford	director	255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Srinivas Tallapragada	director	THE LANDMARK AT ONE MARKET STREET, #300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ross Tennenbaum	officer: See Remarks	255 S KING ST, STE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Brian Sharples	director	1250 CAPITAL OF TX HWY, BLDG 2, PLAZA 1, AUSTIN TX 78746
Wp Avlr Holdco Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Amit Mathradas	officer: See Remarks	255 S KING ST, STE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Kathleen Zwickert	director	255 S KING ST, STE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
William Ingram	officer: See Remarks	C/O LEAP WIRELESS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 5887 COPLEY DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92111
Dooren Pascal Van	officer: See Remarks	255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Rajeev Singh	director	6222 185TH AVENUE NE, REDMOND WA 98052
Marion R Foote	director	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Chelsea R. Stoner	director	C/O AVALARA, INC., 255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Jared R. Vogt	director	C/O AVALARA, INC., 255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Daniel E. Manning	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104