Saul Centers (Saul Centers) Predictability Rank

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What is Saul Centers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Saul Centers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Saul Centers (Saul Centers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Saul Centers Inc (NYSE:BFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BFSpE.PFD:USA BFSpD.PFD:USA SA4:Germany

Address

7501 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1500E, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814-6522

Website

https://www.saulcenters.com

Saul Centers Inc is a self-managed real estate investment trust which invests in, operates, and develops retail and commercial properties. The company's portfolio includes community and neighbourhood shopping centres, office properties, and mixed-use properties. Properties are primarily located in the Washington, D.C. and Maryland metropolitan areas. Saul Centers operates through two business segments: shopping centers, which contribute the maximum portion of total revenue; and mixed-use properties. Major tenants include grocery stores, discount department stores, and drug stores.

Executives

Saul B Francis Ii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8401 CONNECTICUT AVE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Carlos Lawrence Heard	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
David Todd Pearson	officer: Executive V.P.-Real Estate	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20895
Patricia Saul Lotuff	director	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
John E Chapoton	director	BROWN INVESTMENT ADVISORY INCORPORATED, 1717 H STREET, NW, FIFTH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20006
H. Gregory Platts	director	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Clancy George Patrick Jr	director	1100 H ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20080
Philip D Caraci	director
James Page Lansdale	officer: Exec. VP - Real Estate	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Joel Albert Friedman	officer: Sr. V.P./Chief Acctng Officer	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Mark Iii Sullivan	director	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
John F Collich	officer: Sr. VP-Acquisitions & Dev.
Lori Godby	officer: Senior Vice Pres.-Residential	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Judith K. Garland	officer: SVP, Office and Retail	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Willoughby B. Laycock	director, officer: VP-Residential Development	7501 WISCONSIN AVE., SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814