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Cars.com (Cars.com) Predictability Rank


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What is Cars.com Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cars.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cars.com Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cars.com's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cars.com (Cars.com) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Cars.com Inc (NYSE:CARS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CWH SDA KAR CRMT SAH KFS DRVN CANG UCAR VRM TPE:2207 KMX PAG XBRU:DIE LAD HKSE:00881 AN TSE:4732 ABG GPI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
300 S. Riverside Plaza, Suite 1000, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606
Website
https://www.cars.com/
Cars.com Inc is an online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles. The company brands include Dealer Inspire, DealerRater, FUEL, Accu-Trade, PickupTrucks.com, CreditIQ, and NewCars.com., websites directed towards different consumer segments.
Executives
Thomas Alex Vetter director, officer: CEO C/O CARS.COM INC.,300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60604
Sonia Jain officer: Chief Financial Officer 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Angelique Strong Marks officer: Chief Legal Officer 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Bryan Wiener director 520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Douglas Neal Miller officer: Chief Revenue Officer CARS.COM INC., 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Mcgovern Jr. Donald A. director C/O CARS.COM, 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Thomas E Hale director 600 TOWNSEND ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Jeanette Tomy officer: Chief Financial Officer 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
James F Rogers officer: Chief Legal Officer 175 W. JACKSON, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60604
Jenell Ross director 2000 CLEARWATER DRIVE, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Scott E Forbes director C/O CARS.COM INC.,300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jill A Greenthal director MARTHA STEWART LIVING OMNIMEDIA INC, 11 WEST 42ND STREET 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Becky A Sheehan officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O CARS.COM, 300 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael Joseph Kelly director C/O EYEBLASTER, INC., 135 WEST 18TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Greg Revelle director N56 W17000 RIDGEWOOD DRIVE, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051