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City Office REIT (City Office REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is City Office REIT Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

City Office REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

City Office REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of City Office REIT's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

City Office REIT (City Office REIT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » City Office REIT Inc (NYSE:CIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FSP OPI CMCT ONL NLOPw PSTL PKST KBSR PDM HPP ARE BXP XPAR:GFC TSE:8951 TSE:8952 ASX:DXS VNO BOM:542602 KRC TSE:8954
Traded in Other Exchanges
CIOpA.PFD:USA
Address
666 Burrard Street, Suite 3210, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 2X8
Website
https://www.cioreit.com
City Office REIT Inc is a real estate investment trust. It is focused on acquiring, owning, and operating high-quality office properties located predominantly in Sun Belt markets. The company owns office buildings in the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Denver, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Raleigh, San Diego, Seattle, and Tampa.
Executives
Michael Mazan director 3210-666 BURRARD STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C2X8
William R Flatt director 188 E. CAPITOL STREET, SUITE 1000, JACKSON MS 39201
Anthony Maretic officer: Chief Financial Officer 1075 WEST GEORGIA STREET, SUITE 2600, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3C9
James Thomas Farrar director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1075 WEST GEORGIA STREET, SUITE 2600, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3C9
Stephen B Shraiberg director 1331 SEVENTEENTH STREET, STE. 300, DENVER CO 80202
Gregory Tylee officer: See Remarks 1075 WEST GEORGIA STREET, SUITE 2600, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 3C9
John Sweet director SUITE 2990, 500 NORTH AKARD STREET, DALLAS TX 75201
Sabah Mirza director 27 FASKEN DRIVE, TORONTO A6 M9W1K6
Mark Wilhelm Murski director 1312 CLEAVER DRIVE, OAKVILLE A6 L6J IW4
John R. Mclernon director 200 GRANVILLE STREET, 19TH FLOOR, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 2R6
Jeffrey David Kohn director 1029 17 AVE SW, SUITE 200, CALGARY A0 T2T 0A9
Samuel Belzberg 10 percent owner