Columbia Financial (Columbia Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Columbia Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Columbia Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Columbia Financial (Columbia Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Columbia Financial Inc (NAS:CLBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19-01 Route 208 North, Fair Lawn, NJ, USA, 07410

Website

https://www.columbiabankonline.com

Columbia Financial Inc is a federally chartered saving bank that serves the financial needs of depositors and the local community as a community-minded, customer service-focused institution. It offers traditional financial services to businesses and consumers. It attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans, including multifamily and commercial real estate loans, commercial business loans, one-to-four family real estate loans, construction loans, home equity loans and advances, and other consumer loans, and also offers a broad range of insurance products, investment solutions, and wealth management services.

Executives

John Klimowich	officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Dennis E. Gibney	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Thomas J. Kemly	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Mayra Liseth Rinaldi	officer: EVP, Corp Governance & Culture	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Elizabeth E. Randall	director	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Michael Jr. Massood	director	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Manesh Balachandran Prabhu	officer: EVP & CIO	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Matthew William Rickert	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Jenifer White Walden	officer: EVP & CHRO	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Dyk Robert Van	director	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Allyson Katz Schlesinger	officer: EVP & Head of Consumer Banking	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Ostenbridge Paul Van	director	313 LONGBOW DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
William Justin Jennings	officer: EVP, Operations Officer	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Daria Stacy-walls Torres	director	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Lewis Oliver Edward Jr	officer: EVP & Head Commercial Banking	C/O COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC., 19-01 ROUTE 208 NORTH, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410