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Clipper Realty (Clipper Realty) Predictability Rank


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What is Clipper Realty Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Clipper Realty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Clipper Realty Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Clipper Realty (Clipper Realty) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4611 12th Avenue, Suite 1L, Brooklyn, NY, USA, 11219
Clipper Realty Inc is a self-administered and self-managed real estate company. It acquires, owns, manages, operates and repositions multifamily residential and commercial properties in the New York metropolitan area, with a portfolio in Manhattan and Brooklyn. It has classified its reporting segments into commercial and residential rental properties. Clipper derives its revenue mostly from a Residential segment.
Executives
Howard M Lorber director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Harmon Spolan director OOZEN O CONNOR, 1900 MARKET ST 4TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sam Levinson director, 10 percent owner 9190 PRIORITY WAY WEST DRIVE, SUITE 300, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
David Bistricer director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and CEO PO BOX 407, BROOKLIN NY 11219
Michael Charles Frenz officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O CLIPPER REALTY INC, 4611 12TH AVENUE, SUITE 1L, BROOKLYN NY 11219
Roberto Angelo Verrone director 200 HIGHLAND AVENUE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Robert Jay Ivanhoe director GREENBERG TRAURIG, LLP, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Richard N Burger director P.O. BOX 28543, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Lawrence E Kreider officer: Chief Financial Officer 600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 900, DENVER CO 80203
Jacob Bistricer officer: Chief Operating Officer 4611 12TH AVENUE, SUITE 1L, BROOKLYN NY 11219
Jacob Schwimmer officer: Chief PM Offcier 1738 47TH STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11204