Capital Southwest (Capital Southwest) Predictability Rank

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What is Capital Southwest Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Capital Southwest Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Capital Southwest (Capital Southwest) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Capital Southwest Corp (NAS:CSWC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SFW:Germany

Address

8333 Douglas Avenue, Suite 1100, Dallas, TX, USA, 75225

Website

https://www.capitalsouthwest.com

Capital Southwest Corp is an us-based investment company that specializes in providing customized financing to middle market companies across various industries. The company's investment objective to produce attractive risk-adjusted returns by generating current income from debt investments and capital appreciation from equity and equity related investments. It focuses on providing flexible financing solutions through partnership with business owners, management teams, and financial sponsors. The company's portfolio may include senior debt, second lien and subordinated debt, preferred stock and common stock and warrants. The primary source company's revenue comprises interest income and dividend income from investments made as well as management fees.

Executives

Ramona Lynn Rogers-windsor	director	280 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Christine Battist	director	601 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, MINNETONKA MN 55305
David R Brooks	director	1600 REDBUD BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, MCKINNEY TX 75069
Michael Scott Sarner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5400 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75240
Thomas William R Iii	director	12900 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75230
Thomas Duane Morgan	director	9800 RICHMOND AVE, SUITE 305, HOUSTON TX 77042
Joshua S. Weinstein	officer: Senior Managing Director	C/O CAPITAL SOUTHWEST CORPORATION, 5400 LYNDON B JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 130, DALLAS TX 75240
Bowen S Diehl	director, officer: President and CEO	12900 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75230
Jack D Furst	director	2591 LAKESIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, FLOWER MOUND TX 75022
John H Wilson	director	12900 PRESTON RD, STE 700, DALLAS TX 75230
Douglas M. Kelley	officer: Sr. VP & Managing Director	5400 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75240
Moab Partners Lp	10 percent owner	PO BOX 352, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Moab Capital Partners Llc	10 percent owner	PO BOX 352, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Joseph B Armes	director, officer: President	5420 LYNDON B, JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75240
Moab Gp Llc	10 percent owner	15 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021