CytomX Therapeutics (CytomX Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is CytomX Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CytomX Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CytomX Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CytomX Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CytomX Therapeutics (CytomX Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CytomX Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CTMX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6C1:Germany

Address

151 Oyster Point Boulevard, Suite 400, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.cytomx.com

CytomX Therapeutics Inc is an oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company which is operating in the United States. It is engaged in developing antibody therapeutics based on probody technology platform. The company probody technology platform to create proprietary cancer immunotherapies against clinically-validated targets and develops cancer therapeutics. Probody therapeutics are designed to take advantage of conditions in the tumor microenvironment to enhance the tumor-targeting features of an antibody and reduce drug activity in healthy tissues.

Executives

Marcia Belvin	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., STE. 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Christopher Ogden	officer: SVP, Finance and Accounting	C/O CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jeffrey B Landau	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lloyd A Rowland	officer: General Counsel	AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 9360 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Sean A. Mccarthy	director, officer: President and CEO	343 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 100, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Yu-waye Chu	officer: Chief Medical Officer	FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Elaine V Jones	director	C/O TARGACEPT, INC., 200 EAST FIRST STREET, SUITE 300, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Amy C. Peterson	officer: EVP, Chief Development Officer	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Carlos Campoy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11804 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY SOUTH, BOTHELL WA 98011
Alison L. Hannah	officer: Chief Medical Officer	12701 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, SUITE 9, FORT MYERS FL 33913
Alan Ashworth	director	C/O CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., STE. 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bvf I Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners Os Ltd.	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Biotechnology Value Trading Fund Os Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Bvf Ii Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104