What is CryoPort Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CryoPort Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CryoPort (CryoPort) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
112 Westwood Place, Suite 350, Brentwood, TN, USA, 37027
CryoPort Inc is a leader serving the life sciences industry as a provider of integrated temperature-controlled supply chain solutions supporting the life sciences in the biopharma/pharma, animal health, and reproductive medicine markets. Geographically the company operates in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC), generating a majority of its revenue from the Americas.
Executives
| Robert J Hariri |
director |
341 MENDHAM ROAD, BERNARDSVILLE NJ 07924 |
| Jerrell Shelton |
director, officer: President, CEO |
C/O NETRATINGS INC, 120 WEST 45TH STREET 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Richard J Berman |
director |
305 COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Robert Stefanovich |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Mark W Sawicki |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
3303 LAKEPOINTE DRIVE, BELMONT NC 28012 |
| Blackstone Holdings Ii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - Fd L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Daniel M Hancock |
director |
7729 S. BELMONT, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46217 |
| Edward J Zecchini |
director |
20382 BARENTS SEA CIRCLE, LAKE FOREST CA 92630 |
| Linda Baddour |
director |
PRA INTERNATIONAL, 12120 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Ramkumar Mandalam |
director |
4344 PICKEREL DRIVE, UNION CITY CA 94587 |
| Ram M. Jagannath |
director |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Stephen A Schwarzman |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates Iii - Nq L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Freeze Parent L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
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