What is Daktronics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Daktronics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Daktronics (Daktronics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
201 Daktronics Drive, Brookings, SD, USA, 57006
Daktronics Inc designs and manufactures electronic scoreboards, programmable display systems, and large screen video displays for sporting, commercial and transportation applications. It is engaged in a full range of activities: marketing and sales, engineering and product design and development, manufacturing, technical contracting, professional services, and customer service and support. The company offers a complete line of products, from small scoreboards and electronic displays to large multimillion-dollar video display systems as well as related control, timing, and sound systems. The company has five reportable segments such as Commercial, Live Events, High School Park and Recreation, Transportation, and International. The company makes majority of its revenue from Live events.
Executives
| Bradley T Wiemann |
other: VP, Commercial & Trans Mkts |
225 TRAIL RIDGE RD, BROOKINGS SD 57006 |
| Matthew John Kurtenbach |
other: VP of Manufacturing |
1016 CHRISTINE AVE, BROOKINGS SD 57006 |
| Howard I Atkins |
director |
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 5 GREENWAY PLAZA, STE 110, HOUSTON TX 77046 |
| Andrew David Siegel |
director |
1350 E FLAMINGO RD, #253, LAS VEGAS NV 89119 |
| Shereta Diana Williams |
director |
1124 KNOTT ST SE, ATLANTA GA 30316-3124 |
| Lance Dean Bultena |
director |
2620 N. UNDERWOOD STREET, ARLINGTON VA 22213 |
| Reece A Kurtenbach |
other: Vice President, Video Systems |
201 DAKTRONICS DR., BROOKINGS SD 57006-5128 |
| Sheila Mae Anderson |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
3310 WALNUT LN, BROOKINGS SD 57006 |
| Jose-marie Griffiths |
director |
1022 NE 9TH ST, MADISON SD 57042 |
| Carla S Gatzke |
officer: Secretary |
|
| John L Mulligan |
director |
2417 EAST SOLANO DR, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Nancy D Frame |
director |
P O BOX PCS 116, PARIS I0 09777 |
| Byron J Anderson |
director |
395 PAGE MILL RD, MS A3 18, PALO ALTO CA 94306 |
| James B Morgan |
director, officer: CEO & President |
2834 WESTERN AVE S, BROOKINGS SD 57006 |
| Kevin Patrick Mcdermott |
director |
436 ROYAL OAKS DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37205 |
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