Ellie Mae (Ellie Mae) Predictability Rank

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What is Ellie Mae Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ellie Mae Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ellie Mae (Ellie Mae) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Ellie Mae Inc (NYSE:ELLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4420 Rosewood Drive, Suite 500, Pleasanton, CA, USA, 94588

Website

https://www.elliemae.com

Ellie Mae Inc is a provider of on-demand software solutions and services for the residential mortgage industry. Its solutions provide a system to allow banks, credit unions, and mortgage lenders to originate and fund mortgages. The company's solutions include customer relationship management, loan processing, underwriting, compliance, and overall enterprise management capabilities. The company derives revenue from transaction-based fees and subscription fees to its Software-as-a-Service solutions, which are typically sold on an annual basis. All of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Rajat Taneja	director	C/O ELECTRONIC ARTS INC., 209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, LEGAL DEPT., REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Marina Levinson	director	C/O ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Robert J Levin	director	ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
A Barr Dolan	director	ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Karen Blasing	director	4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Peter Hirsch	officer: EVP, Technology & Operations	C/O ELLIE MAE, INC., 4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Alan S. Henricks	director	MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
First American Corp	10 percent owner	40 PACIFICA, SUITE 900, IRVINE CA 92618
Alta Embarcadero Partners Ii Llc	10 percent owner	ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Alta California Management Partners Ii Llc	10 percent owner	ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Garrett Gruener	10 percent owner	ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Alta California Partners Ii Lp	10 percent owner	ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Cmc Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1400, PALO ALTO CA 94301
C.m. Capital Corp	10 percent owner	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1400, PALO ALTO CA 94301
C.m. Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1400, PALO ALTO CA 94301