What is Eterna Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Eterna Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Eterna Therapeutics (Eterna Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1035 Cambridge Street, Suite 18A, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141
Eterna Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The company develops transformational new medicines using various cell engineering technology. It is engaged in developing breakthrough mRNA cell engineering technologies to repair cellular dysfunction and treat a range of therapeutic indications. With its strategic partners, the group is developing nucleic acid and cell therapies that can significantly improve the health outcomes of patients with high unmet medical needs.
Executives
| Dorothy J Clarke |
director |
C/O ETERNA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1035 CAMBRIDGE STREET, STE. 18A, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141 |
| Charles Cherington |
10 percent owner |
ONE BOW STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138 |
| Brant Binder |
director |
C/O TRUST CO OF THE SWEST, 200 PARK AVE SUITE 220, NEW YORK NY 01066 |
| Richard W Wagner |
director |
C/O PRAECIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 830 WINTER ST, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Curtis W Huft |
10 percent owner |
4510 LAMESA HWY, SNYDER TX 79549 |
| Freebird Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Freebird Investments Llc |
10 percent owner |
2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| John D Halpern |
10 percent owner |
|
| Nicholas Jason Singer |
director |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| William A. Wexler |
director |
12 GILL STREET, SUITE 4650, WOBURN MA 01801 |
| Gregory Fiore |
director |
10355 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Andrew C. Jackson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
11988 EL CAMINO REAL STE. 650, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Matthew Angel |
officer: Interim President and CEO |
10531 4S COMMONS DRIVE, SUITE 160-550, SAN DIEGO CA 92127 |
| Heather B Redman |
director |
TWO NORTH NINTH STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101 |
| Erin S. Enright |
director |
666 PLAINSBORO ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
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