Gencor Industries (Gencor Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Gencor Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gencor Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gencor Industries (Gencor Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Gencor Industries Inc (AMEX:GENC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5201 North Orange Blossom Trail, Orlando, FL, USA, 32810

Website

https://www.gencor.com

Gencor Industries Inc and its subsidiaries is a manufacturer of heavy machinery used in the production of highway construction materials and environmental control equipment. The Company has one reporting segment, equipment for the highway construction industry. The firm's principal products include asphalt plants, combustion systems, hot mix asphalt plants, fluid heat transfer systems, and asphalt pavers.

Executives

Jeanne M Lyons	officer: Secretary	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
Ketcham Walter A Jr	director	5201 N ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
Thomas A. Vecchiolla	director	601 QUEEN STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Eric E Mellen	officer: CFO	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
James P Sharp	director	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
Marc G Elliott	officer: Pres., Const. Equip. Group	5201 N ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
John G Coburn	director	10505 GUNSTON ROAD, HORTON VA 22079
Sherry Houtkin	10 percent owner	3900 ISLAND BLVD., PENTHOUSE 4, AVENTURA FL 33160
David Air	director	PO BOX 1188, DUNDEE FL 33838
Dondero Cort J	director
Lawrence C Maingot	officer: Vice President and Controller	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
Dennis Bryan Hunt	officer: Senior Vice President	2790 MARSH WREN CIRCLE, LONGWOOD FL 32779
Lawrence K Miles	officer: Vice President Product Support	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810
Lowell Raymond Adams	officer: CFO and Treasurer	1722 SE HALYARD LANE, VANCOUVER WA 98661
Robert A Mifflin	officer: Interim CFO	5201 N. ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32810