What is Guardant Health Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Guardant Health Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Guardant Health (Guardant Health) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3100 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304
Guardant Health, Inc, based in Redwood City, California, is a leader in liquid-based cancer tests for clinical and research use. The company offers Guardant360 LDT, a liquid biopsy test for treatment selection in advanced stage cancer, Guardant360 CDx, an FDA-approved companion diagnostic for several targeted therapies, and Guardant OMNI, a broader gene panel for immuno-oncology research. In 2021, Guardant launched Reveal, a tumor-agnostic molecular residual disease, or MRD, test. In 2022, the company launched Shield, a liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer, or CRC, screening. Additionally, Guardant offers research development services such as regulatory approval consultancy and clinical trial referrals.
Executives
| Meghan V. Joyce |
director |
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC., ONE DESIGN CENTER PL., STE. 850, BOSTON MA 02210 |
| Kumud Kalia |
officer: Chief Information Officer |
505 PENOBSCOT DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Ines Dahne-steuber |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
3100 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Darya Chudova |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
3100 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Helmy Eltoukhy |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2 BARRY LANE, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| Amirali Talasaz |
director, officer: Chairman, President and COO |
18 ISABELLA AVENUE, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| Musa Tariq |
director |
3100 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Amelia Merrill |
officer: SVP, People |
505 PENOBSCOT DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Steve E. Krognes |
director |
863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010 |
| Stanley J Meresman |
director |
2071 HUNTINGTON LANE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024 |
| Myrtle S Potter |
director |
10 FINDERNE AVE, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Ian T Clark |
director |
SOLAZYME, INC., 225 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Chris Freeman |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
505 PENOBSCOT DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Bahija Jallal |
director |
120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204 |
| Vijaya Gadde |
director |
C/O TWITTER INC, 1355 MARKET STREET SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103 |
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