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Innovent Biologics (HKSE:01801) Predictability Rank


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What is Innovent Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Innovent Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Innovent Biologics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Innovent Biologics (HKSE:01801) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Innovent Biologics Inc (HKSE:01801) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01177 HKSE:01548 HKSE:01877 HKSE:09926 HKSE:09995 HKSE:06990 HKSE:01530 HKSE:06826 HKSE:02162 HKSE:09969 OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA HKSE:02269 XBRU:ARGX BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
IVBXF:USA IVBIY:USA 6IB:Germany
Address
168 Dongping Street, Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu, Suzhou, CHN, 215123
Website
https://www.innoventbio.com
Innovent Biologics, or Innovent, is one of the leading biotechnology companies in China. Listed on the Hong Kong Exchange in 2018, Innovent has eight commercialized oncology products and two commercialized non-oncology products as of August 2023. Its core asset is Tyvyt, a PD-1 inhibitor included in the National Reimbursement Drug Lists for the first-line treatment of five major cancers. Innovent has over 30 strategic collaborations with global pharmaceutical or biotech companies, such as Eli Lilly, Roche Group, Incyte, and others. It also has a wide spectrum of therapeutic targets in early clinical developments. Among its upcoming pipelines, the potential blockbuster is Mazdutide, a therapy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Innovent Biologics (HKSE:01801) Headlines

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