Innovent Biologics (HKSE:01801) Predictability Rank

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What is Innovent Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Innovent Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Innovent Biologics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Innovent Biologics Inc (HKSE:01801) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IVBXF:USA IVBIY:USA 6IB:Germany

Address

168 Dongping Street, Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu, Suzhou, CHN, 215123

Website

https://www.innoventbio.com

Innovent Biologics, or Innovent, is one of the leading biotechnology companies in China. Listed on the Hong Kong Exchange in 2018, Innovent has eight commercialized oncology products and two commercialized non-oncology products as of August 2023. Its core asset is Tyvyt, a PD-1 inhibitor included in the National Reimbursement Drug Lists for the first-line treatment of five major cancers. Innovent has over 30 strategic collaborations with global pharmaceutical or biotech companies, such as Eli Lilly, Roche Group, Incyte, and others. It also has a wide spectrum of therapeutic targets in early clinical developments. Among its upcoming pipelines, the potential blockbuster is Mazdutide, a therapy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Executives

Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2502 Approved lending agent
Yu De-chao Michael	2101 Beneficial owner
Temasek Holdings (private) Limited
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.	2502 Approved lending agent
The Capital Group Companies, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Citigroup Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shi Yi	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lav Asset Management (hong Kong) Limited	2102 Investment manager
Eight Roads Investments	2101 Beneficial owner
Fullerton Management Pte Ltd	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Temasek Life Sciences Private Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tls Beta Pte. Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner

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