Harmonic (Harmonic) Predictability Rank

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What is Harmonic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Harmonic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Harmonic (Harmonic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Harmonic Inc (NAS:HLIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HMC:Germany

Address

2590 Orchard Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131

Website

https://www.harmonicinc.com

Harmonic Inc designs and manufactures video infrastructure products and system solutions to deliver video and broadband services to consumer devices. The firm operates in two segments: Video, which sells video processing, production, and playout solutions to cable operators and satellite and telecommunications providers; and Broadband which sells broadband access solutions and related services. Majority of the revenue generated from the company is from United States.

Executives

Walter Jankovic	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2950 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Jeremy Rosenberg	officer: Interim CFO & SVP Bus Dev	2590 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Patrick Harshman	officer: President, BAN Division	2950 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Nimrod Ben-natan	officer: VP, Solutions & Strategy	2950 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Neven Haltmayer	officer: Vice President, R&D	549 BALTIC WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Sanjay Kalra	officer: Chief Financial Officer	HARMONIC INC., 4300 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Ian Graham	officer: SVP, Intl Sales & Video Svcs	2950 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Sophia Kim	director	2590 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Nikos Theodosopoulos	director	C/O ARISTA NETWORKS, INC., 5453 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Daniel T Whalen	director	2055 BENJAMIN CIRCLE, WALL NJ 07719
David Krall	director	C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY INC, ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876
Eric Louvet	officer: SVP Sales NA & APAC	4300 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Susan Swenson	director	C/O PALM INC, 5470 GREAT AMERICAN PARKWAY MS12116, SANTA CLARA CA 95052
Deborah Clifford	director	4300 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
William F Reddersen	director