Haverty Furniture (Haverty Furniture) Predictability Rank

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What is Haverty Furniture Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Haverty Furniture Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Haverty Furniture Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Haverty Furniture (Haverty Furniture) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Haverty Furniture Companies Inc (NYSE:HVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HVT.A:USA 25F:Germany

Address

780 Johnson Ferry Road, Suite 800, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30342

Website

https://www.havertys.com

Haverty Furniture Companies Inc is a specialty retailer of residential furniture and accessories. It provides various products such as Sofa Tables, Sleepers, End Tables, Cocktail Tables, Accent Pieces, Display Cabinets, Wall Decor, Florals and Tress, and other related products. The company operates primarily in the Southern and Midwestern U.S. All its activities are encompassed in its Merchandise division. The company derives the majority of its revenue from its upholstery products and, secondarily, from bedroom furniture.

Executives

John Linwood Gill	officer: Vice President, Operations	780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, NE, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30157
Rawson Jr Haverty	director, officer: Senior Vice President
Vicki R Palmer	director	PO BOX 723040, ATLANTA GA 30339
Mylle H Mangum	director	3231 S E SIXTH AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66607
Richard B Hare	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	CARMIKE CINEMAS INC, 1301 FIRST AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Clarence H Smith	director, officer: President & CEO	780 JOHNSON FERRY RD., SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342
Steven G Burdette	officer: Senior Vice President
Jenny H Parker	officer: Vice Pres., Secy. & Treas.
Michael R Cote	director	1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kelly Allen Fladger	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, NE, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342
Alfredo Trujillo	director
J Edward Clary	officer: Chief Information Officer
Derek Gordon Schiller	director	780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, NE, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342
G. Thomas Hough	director	P.O. BOX 407, LAKELAND FL 33802
Helen Berry Bautista	officer: Vice President, Marketing	780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342