What is IGC Pharma Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
IGC Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
IGC Pharma (IGC Pharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10224 Falls Road, Potomac, MD, USA, 20854
IGC Pharma Inc develops advanced cannabinoid-based formulations for treating diseases and conditions, including, but not limited to, Alzheimer's disease, period cramps, premenstrual syndrome and chronic pain. The company has two investigational drug assets targeting Alzheimer's disease, IGC-AD1 and TGR-63, which have demonstrated in Alzheimer's cell lines the potential to be effective in suppressing or ameliorating key hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease, such as plaques or tangles. IGC-AD1 is a low-dose tetrahydrocannabinol-based formulation that is in a 146-person Phase 2 clinical trial for agitation in dementia due to Alzheimer's. IGC also markets a wellness brand, Holief, that targets women experiencing premenstrual syndrome and menstrual cramps.
Executives
| James P Moran |
director |
914 SPRING HILL ROAD, MCLEAN VA 22102 |
| John Edward Lynch |
director |
14 PARK AVENUE, REHOBOTH BEACH DE 19971 |
| Richard K Prins |
director |
|
| Ram Mukunda |
director, officer: Exec. Chairman & CEO |
|
| Claudia Grimaldi |
officer: Vice president and PFO |
PO BOX 60642, POTOMAC MD 20859 |
| Rohit Goel |
officer: Manager & PAO |
PO BOX 60642, POTOMAC MD 20859 |
| John Cherin |
officer: CFO, Treasurer and PAO |
662 LIVE OAK DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22101 |
| Shu Kwong Ngai |
director, officer: Interim CFO |
4336 MONTGOMERY AVENUE, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Ranga C Krishna |
director |
330 THORNTON ROAD, ENGLEWOOD X1 07631 |
| Sudhakar V Shenoy |
director |
10411 MOTOR CITY DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817 |
| Suhail Nathani |
director |
INDIA GLOBALIZATION CAPITAL, INC., 4336 MONTGOMERY AVE., BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Nisswa Acquisition Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SVCS LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104 |
| Smith Edward B Iii |
10 percent owner |
C/O BRIGHTLINE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1120 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1505, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Ag Ubs |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Pine River Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O PINE RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 601 CARLSON PARKWAY, 7TH FLOOR, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
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