Insteel Industries (Insteel Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Insteel Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Insteel Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Insteel Industries (Insteel Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Insteel Industries Inc (NYSE:IIIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HZ8:Germany

Address

1373 Boggs Drive, Mount Airy, NC, USA, 27030

Website

https://www.insteel.com

Insteel Industries Inc manufactures steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications. It manufactures and markets PC strand and welded wire reinforcement, including ESM, concrete pipe reinforcement, and standard welded wire reinforcement. The company's products are sold primarily to manufacturers of concrete products that are used in nonresidential construction. Its concrete reinforcing products consist of two product lines: PC strand and WWR. Insteel generates its geographical revenue from the United States.

Executives

James F Petelle	officer: Vice President	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Richard Wagner	officer: Vice President	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Elizabeth Carroll Southern	officer: Vice President-Administration	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Patrick K. Griffin	officer: Controller and CAO	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Scot R Jafroodi	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Woltz H O Iii	director, officer: President and CEO	1373 BOGGS DR, MT AIRY NC 27030
James R. York	officer: Senior Vice President	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
Mark A Carano	officer: Vice President and CFO	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, #700, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Joseph A Rutkowski	director	2100 REXFORD RD, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Jon M Ruth	director	1373 BOGGS DRIVE, MOUNT AIRY NC 27030
G Kennedy Thompson	director	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Anne H Lloyd	director
Michael C Gazmarian	officer: Treasurer	1373 BOGGS DR, MT AIRY NC 27030
Charles B Newsome	director	1373 BOGGS DR, MT AIRY NC 27030
Rogers W Allen Ii	director	1373 BOGGS DR, MT AIRY NC 27030