Ingles Markets (Ingles Markets) Predictability Rank

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What is Ingles Markets Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ingles Markets Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ingles Markets Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ingles Markets (Ingles Markets) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Ingles Markets Inc (NAS:IMKTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IN3A:Germany

Address

2913 U.S. Highway 70 West, Black Mountain, NC, USA, 28711

Website

https://www.ingles-markets.com

Ingles Markets Inc is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in operating a supermarket chain. The company operates the business in the southeast United States, mainly in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, with a few stores in Virginia and Alabama as well. The company locates its stores majorly in suburban areas, small towns, and neighborhood areas. It offers a broad range of goods, including food products, pharmacies, health and beauty care products, and general merchandise. The retail business contributes the majority of the company's revenue. The company's real estate ownership of a material portion of total stores enables it to generate rental income.

Executives

Sharp Laura Ingle	director	2913 U.S. HWY. 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711
Michael David Hogan	officer: President of Subsidiary Milkco	C/O INGLES MARKETS, INCORPORATED, P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
Patricia Jackson	officer: CFO	P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
James W Lanning	director, officer: President, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee
John R Lowden	director	140 GREENWICH AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ernest E. Ferguson	director	P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
Fred Ayers	director	2913 US HIGHWAY 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711
Brenda S Tudor	director, officer: VP Finance, Treasurer, CFO
L. Keith Collins	director	P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
Laura Anne Laxton Ingle 2011 Irrevocable Trust Dated September 8, 2011	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
Robert Ingle, Sr. Administrative Trust Uta Robert Pierce Ingle Living Trust Dated December 24, 2010	10 percent owner	2913 US HIGHWAY 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711
Robert P Ingle	director, officer: Chairman and CEO, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee
Ingles Markets Inc Investment/profit Sharing Plan Trust	10 percent owner
Ronald B Freeman	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee	P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816
Ingle Robert P Ii	director, officer: VP - Operations	PO BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816