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Independence Realty Trust (Independence Realty Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Independence Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Independence Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Independence Realty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Independence Realty Trust (Independence Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Independence Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:IRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
VRE AIRC ELME UMH AIV CSR NXRT BRT CLPR BHM AVB EQR INVH MAA SUI ESS ELS AMH UDR CPT
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1835 Market Street, Suite 2601, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19103
Website
https://www.irtliving.com
Independence Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that acquires, owns, operates, improves and manages multifamily apartment communities across non-gateway U.S. markets. It owns and operates multifamily apartment properties, across non-gateway U.S markets, including Louisville, Memphis, Atlanta, and Raleigh. The company is focused on gaining scale within key amenity-rich submarkets that offer school districts, retail, and employment centers.
Executives
Michele R. Weisbaum other: General Counsel C/O RESOURCE AMERICA, INC., 1845 WALNUT STREET, 18TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Scott Schaeffer director, officer: Chairman, CEO & President C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Ella S Neyland director, officer: Chief Operating Officer
Stephen R. Bowie director 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 500, IRVINE CA 92612
Thomas H. Purcell director 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 500, IRVINE CA 92612
Ned Brines director 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 500, IRVINE CA 92612
Del Rio Ana Marie director 18100 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 500, IRVINE CA 92612
Lisa Washington director 311 ROUSER ROAD, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Richard H Ross director C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James J Sebra officer: CFO & Treasurer C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
William C Dunkelberg director C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jessica K Norman officer: EVP, General Counsel 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jason R Delozier officer: CAO and Controller C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Richard D Gebert director C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Melinda H Mcclure director C/O INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, 1835 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2601, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103