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Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Johnson & Johnson's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Johnson & Johnson's Predictability Rank falls into.



Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Johnson & Johnson's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Johnson & Johnson Business Description

Johnson & Johnson logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Address
One Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 08933
Johnson & Johnson is the world's largest and most diverse healthcare firm. Three divisions make up the firm: pharmaceutical, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer. The drug and device groups represent close to 80% of sales and drive the majority of cash flows for the firm. The drug division focuses on the following therapeutic areas: immunology, oncology, neurology, pulmonary, cardiology, and metabolic diseases. The device segment focuses on orthopedics, surgery tools, vision care, and a few smaller areas. The last segment of consumer focuses on baby care, beauty, oral care, over-the-counter drugs, and women's health. Geographically, just over half of total sales are generated in the United States.
Executives
Weinberger Mark A director METLIFE, INC. 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10166
Hewson Marillyn A director C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION PO BOX 14662 READING PA 19612-4662
Washington A. Eugene director ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Wengel Kathryn E officer: EVP, Chief GSC Officer JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Mcevoy Ashley officer: EVP, WW Chair, Medical Devices JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Perez William D director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: PEREZ WILLIAM D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Mongon Thibaut officer: Exec VP, WW Chair, Consumer JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Stoffels Paulus officer: Vice Chair, Exec Committee ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Ullmann Michael H officer: Exec VP, General Counsel JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Fasolo Peter officer: Exec VP, Chief HR Officer JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Wolk Joseph J officer: Exec VP, CFO JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Taubert Jennifer L officer: EVP, WW Chair, Pharmaceuticals JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Sneed Michael E officer: EVP, Global Corp Aff & COO JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Decker Robert J officer: Controller, CAO ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Gorsky Alex director, officer: Chairman, CEO JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933

Johnson & Johnson Headlines

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