Lifetime Brands (Lifetime Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Lifetime Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lifetime Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lifetime Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lifetime Brands (Lifetime Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Lifetime Brands Inc (NAS:LCUT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LH1:Germany

Address

1000 Stewart Avenue, Garden City, NY, USA, 11530

Website

https://www.lifetimebrands.com

Lifetime Brands Inc is a U.S. based company that designs, sources, and sells branded kitchenware, tableware, and other products used in the home and markets its products under brands such as Farberware, KitchenAid, Cuisine de France, and others. The company markets and sells its products principally on a wholesale basis to retailers. It also markets and sells a limited selection of its products directly to consumers through its Pfaltzgraff, Mikasa, Fred, and Friends, Built NY, and Lifetime Sterling. Its products include kitchen tools, gadgets, cutlery, dinnerware, and glassware. The segments of the company are the U.S. and International. It derives a majority of the revenue from the U.S. segment which includes the domestic operations of the company's business.

Executives

Robert Bruce Kay	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Daniel Siegel	officer: Executive Vice-President	C/O LIFETIME BRANDS, INC., 1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Craig Phillips	director, officer: Executive Vice President	LIFETIME BRANDS INC., 1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Laurence Winoker	officer: SVP Finance/CFO/Treasurer
Veronique Gabai-pinsky	director	C-O VERA WANG GROUP, 15 EAST 26TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10010
Rachael Jarosh	director	1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Michael J Jeary	director	8 BELKNAP LANE, RUMSON NJ 07760
Dennis E Reaves	director	C/O LIFETIME BRANDS, INC., 1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Bruce G Pollack	director	30 ROCKEFEELER PLAZA, SUITE 5050, NEW YORK NY 10020
Michael J Regan	director	14 BRENNER PLACE, DEMAREST NJ 07627
Michael Schnabel	director	1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Centre Partners V, L.p.	10 percent owner	825 THIRD AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Centre Capital Investors V Lp	10 percent owner	825 THIRD AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, New York NY 10022
Ronald Shittan	director	C/O LIFETIME BRANDS, INC., 1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530
William U Westerfield	director	C/O LIFETIME BRANDS, INC., 1000 STEWART AVENUE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530