Mountain Crest Acquisition II (Mountain Crest Acquisition II) Predictability Rank

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What is Mountain Crest Acquisition II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mountain Crest Acquisition II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mountain Crest Acquisition II (Mountain Crest Acquisition II) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp II (NAS:MCADU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

311 West 43rd Street, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp II is a blank check company.

Executives

Frank Karbe	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
Elder Granger	director	5176 S. LEWISTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80015
Richard H Carmona	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Geoffrey M. Parker	director	15 RIORDAN PLACE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Risa J Lavizzo-mourey	director	GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC., 500 W. MONROE ST., CHICAGO IL 60661
Andrew J. Armanino	director	C/O CALIFORNIA BANCORP, 1300 CLAY STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, OAKLAND CA 94612
David P Perry	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	1020 EAST MEADOW CIRCLE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Suying Liu	director	311 WEST 43RD STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kevin Appelbaum, Or His Successor(s), As Trustee Of The Kevin Appelbaum Revocable Trust Under Revocable Trust Declaration Dated 5/16/2020, As Amended	10 percent owner	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
David P. Perry 2015 Trust	10 percent owner	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mark A. Berman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kevin J Appelbaum	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	4160 DUBLIN BLVD., SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Mark Heinen	officer: See Remarks	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Justin Zamirowski	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kristin Wynholds	officer: Chief Product Officer	548 MARKET STREET, #49404, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104