>
Switch to:

Apple Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1980. Start your Free Trial
5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Apple Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Apple Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Apple Business Description

Apple logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334220 SIC : 3571
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (Mac), smartwatches (Apple Watch), AirPods, and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple's total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.
Executives
Kondo Chris officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Maestri Luca officer: Senior Vice President, CFO 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Adams Katherine L. officer: SVP, GC and Secretary APPLE INC. 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Williams Jeffrey E officer: COO ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Cook Timothy D director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O APPLE INC ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Jung Andrea director C/O APPLE INC ONE APPLE PARK WAY CUPERTINO CA 95014
Wagner Susan director C/O BLACKROCK, INC. 40 EAST 52ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10022
Bell James A director C/O THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY 2211 H.H. DOW WAY MIDLAND MI 48674
Levinson Arthur D director C/O GENENTECH INC 1 DNA WAY MS 49 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990
Sugar Ronald D director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 1650 LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Gore Albert Jr director C/O APPLE INC 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Iger Robert A director C/O WALT DISNEY CO 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Ahrendts Angela J officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Srouji Johny officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Federighi Craig officer: Senior Vice President 807 11TH AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089

Apple Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)