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Change Healthcare Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Change Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Change Healthcare Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Change Healthcare's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Change Healthcare Business Description

Change Healthcare logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
424 Church Street, Suite 1400, Nashville, TN, USA, 37219
Change Healthcare is a spin-off of various healthcare processing and consulting services acquired by McKesson over numerous years. Recently, these processing assets were contributed to a joint venture and in June 2019 public shares were issued with McKesson retaining the majority interest. As of the end of the March 2020 quarter, McKesson distributed all its interest in the public processor. Core services consist of insurance (healthcare) claim clearinghouse for healthcare payers in addition to administrative and consulting services to assist healthcare providers improve reimbursement coding, billing, and collections.
Executives
Byers Tracy officer: SVP and GM, Enterprise Imaging C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 424 CHURCH STREET, SUITE 1400 NASHVILLE TN 37219
Domenici Nella director C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105
Martin Steven B. officer: EVP, Enterprise Technology 3055 LEBANON PIKE SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Mckenzie Diana director METLIFE 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10166
Blackstone Family Investment Partnership Vi L.p. 10 percent owner C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
O'reilly Roderick H. officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Bcp Vi Side-by-side Gp L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Mcenery Thomas officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer
Simpkins Neil P director C/O BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Whitley-taylor Linda officer: EVP & Chief People Officer AMERIGROUP CORPORATION 4425 CORPORATION LANE VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Roe Phillip W. director 20 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD SUITE 100 NASHVILLE TN 37215
Joshi Kriten officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Rareshide Paul officer: SVP, Corporate Controller C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Laur Thomas officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Calhoun August officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214

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