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GreenSky Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, GreenSky's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

GreenSky Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Software industry and Technology sector, GreenSky's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where GreenSky's Predictability Rank falls into.



GreenSky Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

GreenSky Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of GreenSky's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


GreenSky Business Description

GreenSky logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 511210 SIC : 7379
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5565 Glenridge Connector, Suite 700, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30342
GreenSky Inc operates as a technology company. The company offers a proprietary technology infrastructure platform to supports the full transaction lifecycle, including credit application, underwriting, and real-time allocation. Its platform caters to merchants, consumers, and banks.
Executives
Kevin Goldstein officer: EVP - Chief Credit Officer 5565 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR SUITE 700 ATLANTA 2Q 30342
Kang Andrew officer: EVP and CFO 5565 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR SUITE 700 ATLANTA GA 30342
Nagy Angela M officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer 1155 PERIMETER CENTER WEST ATLANTA GA 30338
Freishtat Gregg Steven director 5860 WINTERTHUR DRIVE ATLANTA GA 30328
Sheft Robert director, 10 percent owner 623 FIFTH AVENUE 26TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Babbit Joel M. director 3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD. DULUTH GA 30099
Bacci Arthur J director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BACCI ARTHUR J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Coulter James G other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 3300 FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Growth Ii Advisors, Inc. other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 3300 FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bonderman David other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 3300 FORT WORTH TX 76102
Rickard Lois Elizabeth officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 1230 PEACHTREE ST NE SUITE 1000 ATLANTA GA 30309
Fox Steven E officer: EVP - Chief Legal Officer 229 PEACHTREE ST NE 2700 INTERNATIONAL TOWER ATLANTA GA 303031603
Vastani Minaz officer: Chief Technology Officer 5565 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR, SUITE 700 ATLANTA GA 30342
Gupta Ritesh officer: EVP, Operations 5565 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR SUITE 700 ATLANTA GA 30342
Kelly Dennis I officer: President, Patient Solutions 10720 SIKES PL STE 300 CHARLOTTE NC 28277

GreenSky Headlines

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