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Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Horizon Therapeutics's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Horizon Therapeutics's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Horizon Therapeutics's Predictability Rank falls into.



Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Horizon Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Horizon Therapeutics Business Description

Horizon Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Burlington Road, Connaught House, 1st Floor, Dublin, IRL, D04 C5Y6
Horizon Therapeutics PLC is a specialty and generic drug manufacturing company. The company is focused on researching, developing and commercializing medicines that address critical needs for people impacted by rare and rheumatic diseases. The company has two reportable segments: orphan and rheumatology segment and the inflammation segment. It markets medicines in the areas of orphan diseases, rheumatology and inflammation division. The majority of revenue is generated in the United States.
Executives
Sherman Jeffrey W officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer C/O IDM PHARMA, INC. 9 PARKER, SUITE 100 IRVINE CA 92618
Camardo Daniel A. officer: EVP and President, U.S. C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 D04 C5Y6
Konstantinovsky Irina officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Off C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Beeler Brian K officer: EVP, General Counsel C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Hoelscher Paul W. officer: EVP, CFO 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 C/O HORIZON PHARMA, INC. DEERFIELD IL 60062
Walbert Timothy P director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO 1033 SKOKIE BOULEVARD SUITE 355 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Grey Michael G director C/O SGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 10505 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Santini Gino director C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 1100 WINTER STREET WALTHAM MA 02451
Karnani Vikram officer: EVP & President, International C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC, CONNAUGHT HOUSE 1ST FLOOR, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Witz Pascale director C/O REGULUS THERAPEUTICS INC. 10614 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shannon James Samuel director 28903 NORTH AVENUE PAINE VALENCIA CA 91355
Kent Jeff officer: See remarks C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Moze Barry officer: EVP, Chief Admin. Officer C/O HORIZON PHARMA, INC. 520 EAST COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Mchugh Miles W officer: Sr VP & Princ. Acctg Officer C/O ACCRETIVE HEALTH, INC. 401 N. MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 2700 CHICAGO IL 60611
Curtis Geoffrey M. officer: EVP, Corporate Affairs, CCO C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 L2 4

Horizon Therapeutics Headlines

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