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Manhattan Associates Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Manhattan Associates Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Manhattan Associates Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Manhattan Associates's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Manhattan Associates Business Description

Manhattan Associates logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 511210 SIC : 7372
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2300 Windy Ridge Parkway, Tenth Floor, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30339
Manhattan Associates provides software that helps users manage their supply chains, inventory, and omnichannel operations. Customers are generally retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and logistics providers. The company was founded in 1990 and serves more than 1,200 customers around the world.
Executives
Eger Edmond director 135 CHEROKEE WAY PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Richards Bruce officer: Sr. V.P. & Chief Legal Officer 190 NORTHLAND RIDGE TRAIL ATLANTA GA 30342
Howell Robert G officer: Sr VP, Americas Sales 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY 10TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Huntz John J Jr director 1201 W PEACHTREE STREET NW STE 5000 ATLANTA GA 30309
Noonan Thomas E director C/O INTERNET SECURITY SYSTEM INC 6303 BARFIELD RD ATLANTA GA 30328
Hollembaek Linda T. director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY TENTH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Raghavan Deepak director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 700 ATLANTA GA 30339
Moran Charles E director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY 10TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Story Dennis B officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STORY DENNIS B a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Capel Eddie director, officer: President & CEO 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 1000 ATLANTA GA 30339
Pinne Linda C. officer: Sr VP, Global Corp Controller 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY TENTH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Heyman John H director 3925 BROOKSIDE PARKWAY ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Cassidy Brian J director MEENTSESTREAST 81 NL 6987 GLESBEEK NETHERLANDS P7 0000
Lautenbach Dan J director 106 COSTA BELLA COVE AUSTIN TX 78734
Sinisgalli Peter F director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SINISGALLI PETER F a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

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